| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 23 2025 | L | Western Kentucky | 24-41 | 1235.4 | +267.6 | 1503.0 | 17.9% |
| 2 | Aug 29 2025 | L | UNLV | 21-38 | 1503.0 | -33.8 | 1469.2 | 32.5% |
| 3 | Sep 7 2025 | L | Hawai'i | 20-37 | 1469.2 | -52.4 | 1416.8 | 68.8% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Texas | 0-55 | 1416.8 | -3.3 | 1413.5 | 5.3% |
| 7 | Oct 2 2025 | L | New Mexico State | 10-37 | 1413.5 | -61.2 | 1352.3 | 77.9% |
| 8 | Oct 9 2025 | L | Jacksonville State | 27-29 | 1352.3 | -42.3 | 1310.0 | 42.0% |
| 9 | Oct 15 2025 | L | UTEP | 17-35 | 1310.0 | -70.6 | 1239.4 | 78.2% |
| 11 | Oct 31 2025 | L | Louisiana Tech | 14-55 | 1239.4 | -33.4 | 1206.0 | 47.0% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Oregon State | 21-17 | 1206.0 | +60.6 | 1266.6 | 35.6% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Delaware | 26-23 | 1266.6 | +54.5 | 1321.1 | 29.0% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Middle Tennessee | 17-31 | 1321.1 | -62.9 | 1258.2 | 79.5% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Florida International | 16-56 | 1258.2 | -35.9 | 1222.3 | 34.8% |